Edition
Friday, August 28, 2026
21 issues
23h window
~17 min read
Running through today’s issues
Anthropic's revenue lead is real, but its retention policy is handing enterprise tokens away
4 sources
The Information's compiled edition puts Anthropic at $11.6B, roughly 60% ahead of OpenAI, with a supervoting structure and secondary sales being engineered for a record IPO. Clouded Judgement shows the crack: Fable 5's mandatory 30-day logging drove Microsoft to restrict it and GitHub to disable it by default, and Ramp data shows spend rotating to Opus 5. The same Information issue notes AT&T using open models to cut Anthropic bills and OpenAI gaining on OpenRouter, while Visa's harness story shows large customers engineering around Anthropic's per-token cost rather than paying it. The lead is compounding and being arbitraged at the same time.
Cost is being attacked at the harness and the model tier, not the vendor contract
4 sources
Visa spent 100 engineers and three months building an open-sourced harness that cuts model cost by up to 60% and now swaps freely between Anthropic, OpenAI and Kimi. Z.ai's GLM-5.3 Flash hits GPT-5.6-Terra-level scores at $0.15 in / $0.50 out, and Tencent's Hy4 jumped from 31st to 5th on WebDev. Dimension's LP letter explains where that money lands: Chinese labs capture Western workloads but the revenue goes to Modal, Baseten and Fireworks. Clouded Judgement's token bifurcation thesis is now observable in procurement behavior — buy the frontier for 10% of work, route the rest.
Nvidia has become the counterparty to the entire AI trade
4 sources
Superhuman reports $96.2B at 106% growth and a 2027 price increase; The Information reports Nvidia close to guaranteeing about $100B in credit for OpenAI's next data center plus $3B into SB Energy, and separately in talks on Perplexity at $30B-plus. It also just bought Hugging Face for $12.9B, which Not Boring reads as classic commoditize-your-complements and Martin Peers reads as the flagship of a hands-off-antitrust deal spree. Nvidia is now simultaneously supplier, lender, acquirer and equity holder across its own demand curve.
The software repricing was sentiment, and the numbers didn't justify either direction
3 sources
Peers documents Salesforce +23% on 11% growth that was only 6.4% organic, dragging ServiceNow, Figma, Asana, CrowdStrike and Okta with it — an outsized reaction to fine results. Workday reported slowing subscription growth to 13.9% and a 22% FCF decline, yet rallied off a 200%+ jump in AI product ARR to $600M. Clouded Judgement's medians frame the floor: 4.4x EV/NTM overall, 13% median growth. Baier's point lands here — the valuation question and the utility question have decoupled, and only one of them is being traded.
Clouded Judgement
06:13 PT
Clouded Judgement - 8.28.26 - Zero Data Retention
So what
Add ZDR passthrough to every model vendor contract now, or architect for portability — your own security questionnaires will inherit your provider's retention policy.
Jamin Ball argues that Anthropic's Fable 5 underperformed not on price but on data retention: launching with a mandatory 30-day log policy and no ZDR carve-outs pushed enterprise traffic to Opus 5.
- FT/Ramp spend data shows July growth in Anthropic spend came from Opus 5, not Fable 5; Ramp's economist cited the retention requirement as an adoption drag
- Microsoft reportedly restricted employee use of Fable 5; GitHub disabled it by default in Copilot
- Fable 5 at $10 per million input tokens is roughly double GPT-5.6, but frontier models are more token-efficient per task, so cost alone doesn't explain the gap
- Policy versus architecture: the May 2025 NYT-case preservation order forced OpenAI to retain deleted chats, but ZDR customers had nothing to preserve
- OpenAI's Private Safety Processing keeps data under customer-held keys and returns only alert category and severity — a launch-style blog post about retention signals revenue at stake
- Public SaaS medians: 4.4x EV/NTM revenue overall, 17.3x high growth, 13% median NTM growth, 110% net retention
Superhuman AI
06:13 PT
📈 Nvidia delivers
So what
Nvidia's 2027 price increases mean your hardware and inference cost curves stop falling — budget for that before you sign multi-year compute commitments.
Nvidia's quarter is the issue's centre of gravity: $96.2B revenue, up 106% year over year, roughly $1B a day, alongside the Hugging Face acquisition and a Salesforce beat.
- Nvidia reported $96.2B quarterly revenue, +106% YoY; Huang called it an industry inflection point and AI stocks rallied
- Nvidia bought Hugging Face for ~$13B and plans to raise prices starting in 2027, pushing chip-dependent hardware costs up
- Salesforce posted $11.3B revenue, +11% YoY, stock up 20%, and launched Claudeforce with 37 pre-built skills bringing Salesforce into Claude chats
- Claude Cowork gained a built-in browser as a side panel, rolling out to paid desktop plans over the coming week
- ChatGPT Work got password-protected site login so it can run errands on authenticated sites
The Information
06:01 PT
Exclusive: Trump Administration Working on AI Rule to Curb China’s Remote Access to Chips
So what
If your portfolio includes neoclouds or offshore GPU capacity in Southeast Asia, September comment drafts will tell you whose customer base is about to be audited.
Commerce's BIS is drafting a slimmed-down replacement for the Biden-era AI diffusion rule, aimed squarely at the remote-access loophole.
- Four sources say a small Commerce group has been building the replacement in recent weeks
- The target: Chinese AI firms renting advanced chips remotely through data centers in Thailand, Singapore and elsewhere
- BIS could circulate the draft to AI companies and industry trade groups for feedback as early as September
- Trump had announced in 2025 that the diffusion rule would be undone; this is a partial reversal in narrower form
Not Boring
05:14 PT
Weekly Dose of Optimism #208
So what
Anthropic's Model Hardware Standard makes wet-lab automation a platform play — the instrument vendors and CRO middleware in your pipeline just got a new dependency.
Packy McCormick's optimism roundup leads with an FDA pancreatic cancer approval and lands on nuclear defense contracts and Nvidia's Hugging Face deal.
- FDA approved Revolution Medicines' Rasonque for RAS-mutated metastatic pancreatic cancer: 13+ months median survival versus 6.7 on chemo alone, cleared 6.5 months faster than standard PDUFA under the Commissioner's National Priority Voucher pilot
- Army's $2.2B Janus program picked five companies; Radiant gets $750M for 15 Kaleidos microreactors, Antares says its contract value is on the order of $1B; Standard Nuclear supplies TRISO to both
- Actinide became the first startup to enrich uranium to HALEU, using its Texas-built Endurance particle accelerator
- Airbound raised $37M from Greenoaks and Lachy Groom alongside a movement-in-the-air manifesto
- Anthropic previewed Model Hardware Standard, letting agents drive microscopes, liquid handlers and robotic arms in parallel; Hugging Face shipped a $399 RL robot, Microduck, the same week Nvidia agreed to buy it for $12.9B
Ben's Bites
05:14 PT
How I built this
So what
The three-variants-then-annotate loop is a cheap standard to impose on your design-adjacent agent work; so is banning model-invoked skills.
Ben Tossell walks through rebuilding bentossell.com with Codex, scrapping a whole agent-interface direction overnight and shipping a simpler canvas version instead.
- Loop was screenshot into tldraw, annotate, send back to Codex; his AGENTS.md always asks for three design variants so he can feel the differences
- Judgement: Claude models infer intent better from design feedback, GPT models are more rigid and need explicit tweaks
- He disables model-invoked skills by default — "make sure skills are not model-invoked and only user-invokable"
- Switched Codex to run work through Droid with Grok when GPT models stalled on the interface
- Content lives in per-thread Markdown files; deployed via here.now straight from the local folder, no GitHub required, DNS pointed from Vercel by the agent using Chrome
The Information
04:13 PT
U.S. Judge Orders Pentagon to Rescind Blacklisting of Anthropic
So what
Anthropic's regulatory overhang clears just as it prices an IPO — and GLM-5.3 Flash at $0.15 in means your cheap-tier routing should be re-benchmarked this week.
A federal judge ordered the Pentagon to rescind its supply-chain-risk blacklisting of Anthropic, calling it First Amendment retaliation, in an issue that also tracks Chinese labs undercutting Western pricing.
- Judge Rita Lin, N.D. Cal.: "The empty invocation of national security is not a blank check to punish and retaliate against government critics"; a second Anthropic suit continues in D.C. circuit court
- Over 100 companies including Anthropic, Google, Citadel and Visa signed OpenAI's letter calling for coordinated cyberdefense of hospitals and water treatment plants
- Z.ai's GLM-5.3 Flash scores 57 on Artificial Analysis, matching GPT-5.6 Terra, at $0.15 in / $0.50 out per million tokens, half off through Sept 9 — cheaper than DeepSeek V4-Flash
- Tencent's Hy4 preview jumped from 31st to 5th on Code Arena WebDev, under former OpenAI researcher Yao Shunyu
- Workday subscription revenue grew 13.9% to $2.5B with guidance down to 12%, but AI product ARR grew 200%+ to $600M; FCF fell 22% to $460M
Kieran Flanagan
04:03 PT
I Built an AI System That Positions Your Product
So what
Run the competitor test against your portfolio companies' homepages this week; most will fail it, and the repo gives you a free remediation path.
Flanagan open-sources a three-part positioning and web-copy skill system, arguing that AI's flood of lookalike products has made positioning the scarcest marketing skill.
- G2 now lists 200,000 products across 2,000 categories; 20,000 new AI products appeared in one year, a 391% spike
- Wynter survey of 100 B2B marketing leaders: 86% rate themselves only somewhat or slightly distinctive, 6% very distinctive
- Six principles distilled from April Dunford, Ries & Trout, Andy Raskin, Bob Moesta and others, including the competitor test — if a rival can paste their name into your claim, it isn't a differentiator
- Repo structure: brand-context template plus slop-patterns checklist, then positioning.md, then website-copy.md
- His stated correction: he stopped shipping Claude-generated systems he never checked, and now spends many hours per skill
Noahpinion
02:48 PT
Here’s how we’re all going to die
So what
The bio-uplift argument is the strongest case for Anthropic's retention posture — weigh it before you treat mandatory logging as pure customer hostility.
Noah Smith argues AI-enabled bioterror is the one apocalypse scenario he finds plausible, and dismantles the five standard reasons people give for not worrying.
- His estimate: ~10% chance AI-enabled bioterror ends civilization, ~30% chance of world-changing destruction
- The scenario turns on a jailbroken Chinese open model, an unlicensed East European biolab that ships modified viruses, and a long asymptomatic contagious period
- Against "AI will make vaccines": the virus has first-mover advantage and Covid-era logistics took months even with a known formula; long asymptomatic spread defeats vaccines entirely, leaving only antivirals
- He explicitly ranks this above climate, cyberattacks and misinformation, and notes expert surveys don't single bio risk out from the general risk cloud
- The safety community, in his read, is focused on preventing superintelligence rather than on specific kill vectors
The Information Briefing
17:01 PT
The Briefing: Wall Street's Software Change of Heart
So what
The software repricing was sentiment, not fundamentals — if you shorted the SaaSpocalypse thesis, cover; if you're selling a SaaS asset, the window is now.
Martin Peers calls the SaaSpocalypse over: Salesforce's 23% single-day pop dragged the whole beaten-down software complex up, and the deal window is wide open.
- Salesforce +23% Thursday, cutting its year-to-date drawdown from 43% to 4%; ServiceNow, Figma and Asana rallied with it; CrowdStrike +20.5%, Okta +29%
- The numbers were merely fine: 11% revenue growth, 2 points slower than Q1, and only 6.4% excluding the Informatica acquisition
- KeyBanc's Jackson Ader: "We're all coming around to the idea that things are going to be more durable"
- Deal spree in a hands-off antitrust regime: Nvidia/Hugging Face $12.9B, Stripe/OpenRouter ~$7B, SpaceX/Cursor, Salesforce/Informatica, Google/Wiz — with roughly two years of certainty left
- Also: SoftBank in talks for a majority stake in humanoid maker 1X at $6B; Trump's new-AI-regulator executive order has stalled
The Information
16:52 PT
China Holds Opportunity But High Valuations, Fund Tells LPs
So what
The inference layer, not the model layer, is where Chinese open weights monetize — Modal, Baseten and Fireworks are the tradeable expression of that thesis.
A Dimension Capital LP letter from a week-long China trip concludes that Chinese labs are capturing Western workloads but not Western revenue — and are more expensively valued than US frontier labs.
- Dimension partners: leading Chinese labs trade at revenue multiples five to ten times higher than US frontier labs; "the climate seems to be meaningfully frothier in China"
- Moonshot's Kimi and Zhipu's GLM won Western usage where a generation of Chinese enterprise software startups failed, but revenue accrues to US inference providers Modal, Baseten and Fireworks
- DeepSeek generated about $70M in the first seven months of 2026, against tens of billions annualized at Anthropic and OpenAI
- Benchmark survived a Treasury review of its Manus stake and distributed returns before Beijing forced Manus to unwind the $2B Meta sale; Manus revenue soared after the deal was announced
- Dimension closed an $800M third fund in July; Anthropic bought its portfolio company Coefficient Bio for ~$400M
The Information
16:01 PT
Anthropic's Lead Widens While OpenAI Pays Up
So what
Nvidia now guarantees OpenAI's credit and owns Hugging Face — your Nvidia exposure is increasingly a levered bet on OpenAI's ability to service that paper.
A compiled Anthropic-versus-OpenAI edition: Anthropic's revenue nearly doubled to $11.6B, extending its lead to roughly 60%, while OpenAI spent the month absorbing a rogue-agent hack and an AG probe.
- Anthropic's best quarter yet at $11.6B; it is locking in supervoting founder shares, buying a consultancy for its enterprise venture, and prepping what could be the largest IPO ever
- OpenAI's costs: a rogue-agent hack that spilled into Hugging Face, a state attorney general probe, its chief revenue officer's exit, and a self-imposed model-development slowdown
- Nvidia is close to guaranteeing about $100B in credit for OpenAI's next data center, plus talks to invest $3B in SB Energy for the Ohio 10-gigawatt campus
- Counter-signals for Anthropic: AT&T is using open-source models to curb Anthropic bills; OpenAI is gaining on Anthropic among OpenRouter customers
- Open question the newsletter poses directly: will Anthropic and OpenAI stop selling their best models to businesses at all
GAI Insights (Paul Baier)
15:28 PT
Why do people care SO MUCH about the "AI Bubble"?
So what
Use the two-questions split in board meetings: valuation belongs to you as investor, throughput belongs to your operators, and conflating them stalls deployment.
Paul Baier's complaint is that executives conflate a valuation question with a utility question, and uses the bubble obsession as a diagnostic of avoidance.
- Seven tech companies are roughly 35% of S&P 500 market value, which makes the investor anxiety rational; the leap to "the technology is fake" is not
- His line: AI is not crypto — crypto asked you to believe in an asset, AI asks you to use a tool, and people already have
- Concrete deployments cited: 100,000-document diligence reviews replacing paralegals, contract review, interview transcript analysis, data structuring
- If the market fell 40% tomorrow the diligence team still opens the tool Monday; competitive pressure doesn't track the Nasdaq
- Plugs Claude Projects as per-project chats, prompts, files and memory, plus GAI World 2026 in Boston Sept 28-30
The Information
14:49 PT
Exclusive: Revenues Boom at Cognition and Other AI Apps, But Compute Costs Keep Cash Burn High
So what
A $45B mark on $900M ARR with unresolved gross margins is the comp every coding-agent company in your pipeline will now anchor to.
Cognition and peer AI app companies are growing revenue fast while compute costs keep cash burn high — a reassurance to investors that apps can survive beside the labs.
- Cognition is at roughly $900M annualized, $75M a month, up more than 3x since the start of the year
- Customers include BNY, Santander and Mercedes
- It is raising at a valuation around $45B
- The unresolved variable is compute cost, which keeps burn elevated despite the revenue ramp
James Clear
14:19 PT
3-2-1: On thinking long-term, how to attract like-minded people, and one sign of mental toughness
So what
Nothing operational here; read it in two minutes on a Friday and move on.
The standard 3-2-1: long-term thinking, mental toughness as independence from circumstance, and enthusiasm as the only sustainable fuel for hard work.
- "Long-term thinking changes short-term actions. Spend a little time today doing things that will benefit you in ten years."
- Mental toughness framed as being larger than the situation — the less your mood depends on circumstances, the tougher you are
- On effort: the only person who feels like working hard for years is someone excited about the task; follow your enthusiasm
- Dolly Parton on choosing to make things better rather than wallowing; Carl Jung on unknown friends finding you if you do your work conscientiously
- Question: pick one room, name one item you no longer benefit from, and remove it
McKinsey & Company
13:54 PT
An update on US consumer sentiment: Holiday budgeting begins
So what
If you hold consumer-facing assets, the sentiment-spend divergence argues against trimming Q4 inventory or marketing on macro pessimism alone.
McKinsey's ConsumerWise update reports US consumers are wary about the economy but plan to hold or increase holiday spend.
- Holiday budgets flat to up versus last year despite negative economic sentiment
- Sentiment-to-behavior gap is the whole finding: stated pessimism is not translating into cut budgets
- Paired with The State of Grocery North America 2026 and State of the Consumer 2026 on tech acceleration colliding with cost pressures
The Information
13:31 PT
Visa Says Its AI ‘Harness’ Makes Anthropic Cheaper to Use For Cyber Defense
So what
Harness engineering is now a defensible cost lever — a 60% reduction beats any vendor negotiation, and Visa just gave you the reference implementation free.
Visa built and open-sourced a harness that makes Anthropic's unreleased Mythos model materially cheaper and faster at finding and fixing security bugs.
- Nearly 100 engineers spent more than three months building the Visa Vulnerability Agentic Harness; it breaks bug-fixing into 11 stages, pre-maps which codebases to scan, and double-checks for false positives
- A July study cited by Visa showed a similar harness can cut model costs by as much as 60%
- Thursday's update lets users swap between Anthropic, OpenAI and open-weight models like Kimi, or combine them
- Visa uses trillions of tokens monthly — two trillion tokens of Claude Opus 5 runs about $7.7M a month at blended prices
- Visa is one of ~40 businesses in Anthropic's Project Glasswing with early access to Mythos; Globant, Coinbase, Shopify and Ramp have built their own harnesses
Every
13:04 PT
Our ChatGPT and OpenClaw Guides Just Got an Overhaul
So what
Maintenance load, not capability, is what kills per-person agents — consolidate to one shared agent with per-user auth before your team scales its Claw count.
Every rewrote two guides without any model changing, arguing the scaffolding around models now moves results more than version numbers do.
- Codex for Knowledge Work is renamed ChatGPT for Knowledge Work: quick questions in Chat, longer assignments in Work, code in Codex, with 16 workflows recast for Work
- New surface area covered: /goal for persistent objectives with a definition of done, cloud versus local projects, Scheduled Tasks and thread automations, and a built-in browser with its own signed-in profile
- The OpenClaw recommendation flipped: a stronger model still can't re-login on an expired credential, notice a broken integration, or retire a stale job
- Every replaced personal Claws with the Every Agent living in Slack — one shared company agent, per-person connections and context
- Guides are written for agents as much as humans; they suggest handing them to your agent and asking what to adapt
The Information
11:12 PT
Exclusive: Anthropic Considers Letting Shareholders Sell In IPO, Departing from SpaceX Playbook
So what
If you hold Anthropic secondaries, liquidity may come at the IPO rather than six months later — but plan for a longer lockup on whatever you keep.
Anthropic is weighing letting existing shareholders sell into its IPO while considering unusually long post-listing lockups.
- Secondary sales in the IPO would break from SpaceX and Cerebras, this year's other big tech listings, neither of which let existing holders sell
- CoreWeave and Figma did include existing-stockholder sales alongside new share issuance
- Longer-than-usual lockups are under consideration as the counterweight
AI with Allie
10:44 PT
Special Edition Workshop: AI for Gen X Women 🤘
So what
The most-responded-to post of her career identifies an underserved enablement segment — worth noting if you back AI training or upskilling companies.
Allie Miller announces a free 90-minute AI workshop built specifically for Gen X women, sourced from one-on-one interviews after an Instagram story drew her highest-ever response.
- September 15, 1-2:30pm ET, emceed by Cher Jones, free registration
- Built from hours of calls with Gen X founders, executives, engineers and women rebuilding careers, asking what they want and what they're sick of
- Deliverables: one automation that returns real time on email and calendar, a repeatable prompting habit, and 30 minutes of live Q&A
- Her framing of the gap: every professional segment gets AI enablement content except women at the peak of their careers
- Open to anyone; no age gating
The Information
10:01 PT
One month to go: Google DeepMind, OpenAI & more join AI Agenda Live
So what
Tworek and Zelikman on one stage is the actual reason to go — both are running new companies and will be pitchable in person.
Promotional issue for AI Agenda Live on September 23 at SFMOMA, one month out, with the speaker list as the pitch.
- Koray Kavukcuoglu, SVP Google DeepMind and Chief AI Architect at Google; Thibault Sottiaux, Head of Core Products at OpenAI
- Jerry Tworek, now co-founder and CEO of Core Automation, formerly VP of Research at OpenAI; Eric Zelikman of humans&, ex-xAI and creator of STaR
- Enterprise side: Tamar Yehoshua of Atlassian, Dan Diasio of EY, Owen Jennings of Block, Jas Khaira of Blackstone N1
- Hosted by Stephanie Palazzolo and Amir Efrati; subscribers get a $200 discount
The Information
09:12 PT
Exclusive: Trump Administration Executive Order for New AI Regulator Stalls
So what
Self-regulation, not statute, is the shape federal AI oversight is taking — position your compliance posture around industry-body membership, not agency rulemaking.
A draft executive order creating a self-regulatory organization for frontier AI companies has circulated internally but lost momentum.
- Two people have viewed a draft calling for an SRO covering companies producing state-of-the-art models
- Three other sources say progress has stalled; it still needs sign-off from senior officials including the president
- Drafting itself is the signal — a meaningful step toward a formal regulator even if this version dies